Design And Accomplishment Of Monitoring And Forecasting System On Aquatic Animal Disease

Over the past 20 years,Chinese aquaculture industry has made rapid development.In 2002,China has become the only country with aquaculture production surpassed capturing yield.In recent years,the aquaculture industry has developed rapidly,then the occurrence of epidemic diseases became increasingly serious,which became a great stumbling block for the healthy development and a grave threat to the stability of the aquaculture industry and sustainable development.Aquatic animal disease reporting is identified through the diagnosis and recognition of epidemic diseases.Accurately response the periodical situation of regional aquaculture and comprehensive analysis of the incidence on the basis of forecasting trends in the entire process,which aimed to take early control measures and minimize disease loss.Monitoring and forecasting system of aquatic animal disease would help to create a fast,accurate information collection,transmission,processing and decision making response system,which made the information collection had the characteristics of transmission network,data processing modernization,which made the production sector and management division timely and effective get information of dynamics and trends on aquatic animal disease,in order to strengthen disease control and offer timely,accurate and convenient information services to fish farmers.This paper summarized the general situation of aquatic animal diseases,the signification of forecasting study,progress and development trend of disease forecasting study at home and abroad.The categories of aquatic animal diseases,pathogen and disease forecasting methods were described and analyzed in detail.The paper emphasized the design and implementation of aquatic animal disease forecasting system including subsystems of basic data processing,diseases forecasting and monitoring data publishing, disease database management system and data entry client program.MSSQL was used as database management system,client program developed by VC++6.0,forecasting model accomplished mainly through Vb or VbScript,and forecasting methods included gray prediction model,ARIMA model,cellular automata,BP neural network and the Maldives Markov chain.The system usedâ…¡S as a web server,dynamic web page accomplished by ASP,geographic information systems such as the various thematic maps generated through using MapX,and disease forecasting directly coded by Vbscript,or direct completed via commercial software,such as IDRISI call,GINO,MATLAB and SAS.It also showed us the instances of thematic map on distribution of grass carp diseases in April 2007 Jiangsu Province and thematic map for forecasting the development trend of ciliates diseases for crab in July 2008.The application of modern network technology, database technology,GIS technology for forecasting aquatic animal diseases speed up monitoring data collecting,processing,transmission and dissemination and enable the producer and policy maker to acquire the information on situation of disease occurrence, prevention and control of aquatic animal diseases timely,which were discussed primarily.