The Research On Annual Runoff Prediction And Optimal Allocation Of Water Model In The Irrigation Area

With the development of economic society,the problem of water shortage is increasingly serious,therefore,the rational allocation and effective management of the water resources is the important guarantee for saving water resources and making the benefit.This paper takes annual runoff prediction and an optimal allocation of water as research aims,the work and technical implementation including the following three aspects:First,on the basis of the research on the irrigation area in annual runoff and influencing factors,analyzes the characteristics of the annual runoff,and compara the time rank,artificial neural network and support vector machine.For the characterisics of the annual runoff,use the support vector machine to forecast the annual runoff.Secondly,the change of annual runoff is influenced on some complicated characteristics,such as climate,surface,solor activity and human activity.The complexity and uncertainty of these factors bring great difficulties to the annual runoff.Based on support vector machine can be used to solve the small sample,high dimension,nonlinear problems,set up a support vector machine prediction model.The SVM prediction model set up achieves a better prediction result.Last,when the water resoures is insufficient in the irrigation areas,in order to achieve the greatest agricultural ecnomical benefit,set up an optimal allocation model of water,Using the genetic algorithm to solve the established model solution,it is indicated that genetic algorithm can gain a better effect of the optimization,and the efficiencies of water resources utilization are improved.