| In the 21st century, social development being accompanied with a variety of crises, mankind has entered a risk society which is full of many uncertainties. SARS, Avian Influenza (AI) and Influenza A virus subtype H1N1and other public health emergencies have forced us to seriously study and cope with these risks.Since 2003, frequent outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) have emerged in different countries and regions worldwide. The epidemic situation scope continued to expand, showing a diffusive and spreading trend. The present endemic situation brings about not only significant economic losses, but also a good many casualties and severe impacts to the ecological environment regionally and globally which has aroused the concern of the whole community. AI is an infectious disease of birds caused by type A strains of the influenza virus. Its occurrence and spread have a close relationship with the natural conditions, the migratory birds, the epidemic situation, the poultry farming, the paddy rice cultivation and poultry products transport and trade, and so on and so forth.The Poyang Lake is China's largest freshwater lake, also one of the important habitats for migratory birds in the world. The Poyang Lake Region (PLR) is one of the main paddy rice growing areas, with favorable conditions for poultry farms, and a comparatively large proportion of artificial feeding wild ducks. In addition, this region owns a higher accessibility and convenience of traffic and the national large poultry products trade market.Based on the review of the outbreak and spread of AI and the risk analysis and its impacts, combining with the data collected and collated in the field survey and household interviews conducted in the PLR, the risks of AI in this region were ascertained, and the risk analysis index system for evaluation were eatablished. By applying the Multi-indicator Comprehensive Evaluation Methods, the risk possibility of AI in the PLR were calculated, and several prevention and control measures were put forward according to the risk results.After the risk analysis, the conclusions are as follows:1. Established the evaluation index system of risk analysis in the PLR. The system composed of the overall objective layer A, the target elements layer B, and the criteria layer C and the index layer D. The target level includes natural factors (B1) and human factors (B2). In the layer C, the ecological environment (C1), the wild birds (C2), endemic situation in the local and surrounding areas (C3), feeding patterns (C4), traffic and trade of poultry products (C5), slaughter and processing (C6), prevention and control measures (C7) are presented. The layer D contains 23 sub-risk factors.2. The weight value for each risk factor was calculated through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the analytic hierarchy process software (Yaahp 0.5.0). Among them, the present epidemic situation in the surrounding area (D32) is a high sub-risk factor. The immune density of poultry (D73), precious epidemic situation in the local area (D31), the contact conditions between migratory birds and domestic poultry (D23), treatment of waste in the slaughterhouse waste (D62), prevention and control capacity to sudden epidemic situation (D72) and early detection and diagnostic ability (D71) are the second high sub-risk factors.3. The risk probability of AI in the PLR was computed with the Multi-indicator Comprehensive Evaluation Methods. The result is 0.7278, which signifies the PLR is an area with high risk value of AI.
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