The Research Of The Effect And Forecast Of Meteorological Factors On Epidemic Situation Of Common Infectious Diseases In Drought Area

The earth is continuously changing every moment. Meteorologists forecasted that weather would come into the period of warmth next cen-tury. Analyzing the climate, environment and the position of supply and demand of water resources in our country, the frequency and in-tensity of drought disaster would strengthen furtherly. The effect and harm of drought disaster was greater than that of the flood. Then, drought disaster might be the most serious natural disaster. It was the most important task to investigate the relations between meteorological factors and incidence of common infectious diseases . Because it could provide scientific evidence for the prevention of epidemic situation in drought area.Subjects and Methods1. The data of infectious diseases incidence and meteorological factors in drought disaster area, Chao yang city, during 1979 - 1994 have been collected and input to build a database .2. Correlation analysis was performed using SPSS for windows, version 10.0 .3. The model of back - propagation artificial neural network wasbuilt by Matlab, version 6.5 .Results一. ,The analysis result of correlationHie mean air pressure was negative correlation to the incidence of bacillary dysentery, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, viral hepati-tis, epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis, pertussis, scarlet fever, en-demic typhus and endemic encephalitis B. The mean evaporation was positive correlation to the incidence of bacillary dysentery, typhoid fe-ver and paratyphoid fever, epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis, pertus-sis and endemic encephalitis B. Hie mean precipitation was negative to the incidence of bacillary dysentery, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis and pertussis. The maximum temperature was positive correlation to the incidence of viral hepatitis, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, epidemic cerebrospinal meningi-tis, endemic encephalitis B. The minimum temperature was negative correlation to pertussis, endemic typhus. The ground temperature was negative correlation to the incidence of endemic typhus.二 .,The effection of back - propagation artificial neural networkThe ANN model fitted very well in the study of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, viral hepatitis and epidemic cerebrospinal meningi-tis, yet, it didn't fit so well in the study of endemic typhus and en-demic encephalitis B.Piscuss1. The effect of meteorological factors on epidemic situation ofcommon infectious diseasesHie maximum temperature was positive correlation to the inci-dence of viral hepatitis, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis, endemic encephalitis B, the temperature was between 29.0? and 32. 8?, the incidence of infectious disease increased while the temperature was higher. The minimum tempera-ture was negative correlation to pertussis endemic typhus, the tem-perature was between -13.6? and -22.0? ,the incidence of infec-tious disease increased while the temperature was lower. Long - term high temperature not only could decrease the resistibility of the body, but also can cause the pollution of the air and waterhead, the scarcity of food, production of the bacillus and virus, sequentially affect distri-bution of the infectious disease. Under the low temperature, the in-crease of indoor activity would make the opportunity. The rat will move to resident for the sake of lacking food that benefited the spread of virus between the rat, and cause easily epidemic situation breaking out. The ground temperature was negative correlation to the incidence of endemic typhus. The mean air pressure was negative correlation to the incidence of bacillary dysentery, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fe-ver, viral hepatitis, epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis, pertussis, scarlet fever, endemic typhus and endemic encephalitis B. The mean evaporation was positive correlation to the incidence of bacillary dys-entery, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis, pertussis and endemic encephalit...