Establishment Of Injury Effect Model Of Aerosol Release Of Biological Warfare Agents

Theoretical epidemiology is an important branch of epidemiology, which reveals the transmission pattern of infectious diseases through establishing mathematical models according to epidemiology knowledge.Nowadays bioterrorism has attracted more and more attention. Attack by biological weapon can directly lead to an outbreak of infectious disease. In order to estimate the injury effect after biological attack, a series of mathematical models were constructed, considering the main factors such as type of biological agents, releasing approaches, initial intensity, size of contamination area, characteristics of biological warfare agents, environment factors, population size in the attacked area, and protection measures. A total of 34 parameters were included in these mathematical models to estimate the injury effect of an attack through aerosol release of biological warfare agents.The model of injury effect of aerosol release of biological warfare agents can be divided into three groups: Firstly, three kinds of static models and dynamic models were set up to estimate the size of contamination area. Secondly, according to the size of contamination areas, the density of local population, the prevention measures, and the epidemiological characteristics of the diseases, the static models and dynamic models were established to calculate infection rate, morbidity and mortality, caused by infectious agents and non-infectious agents respectively. The lastly, the models for estimating the number of injured people, based on what intervention measures were taken and which time the intervention measures began, were set up. The models can be used to appraise the effects of intervention measures .The static models are simple and convenient, and can be adopted when fewer parameters are available. The dynamic models deal with many factors, are more complex and approach to reality. Because they can provide the change of all kinds of index with time, dynamic models are more convenient for us to obtain the real time information of injury effects after biological attack.Through simulating the injury effects after attack of anthrax or smallpox agents, we can easily see the group of models action in estimating the injury effects of infectious biological agent and non-infectious biological agent respectively.