The Preliminary Study Of Scoring System On Prognostic Assessment Of Chronic Severe Hepatitis

ObjectiveTo establish a scoring system on prognostic assessment of chronic severehepatitis.MethodsClinical data of 125 patients with chronic severe hepatitis were retrospectivelystudied and these patients were followed up at least for three months. The correlateddegree between the independent risk factors and prognosis of chronic severehepatitis was explored by COX proportional hazard model in survival analysis.These independent risk factors were to build scoring system.ResultsThe factors significantly affected prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis wereincluding age, the HBV-DNA, the international normalized ratio of prothrombintime (PTINR), serum sodium, serum creatinine, serum potassium, Blood ureanitrogen(BUN), ascites, hepatic encephalopathy(HE), Hepatorenal syndrome anddigestive tract hemorrhage et al. Among them, some factors including PT-INR,BUN, and HE were independent risk factors of prognosis. The formula of scoringsystem was that: PI=5.89×HE+0.55×BUN(mmol/L)+0.54×PTINR-10.63. Ifthe score was less than -5, probabilities of predicting 3 month survival rate was 70%;When the score was 5 to 15, probabilities of predicting 3 month survival rate wasonly 15%. But when the score was more than 15, probabilities of predicting 3 monthsurvival rate dropped to 0%.ConclusionsThe factors including PTINR, BUN, and HE are independent risk factors of prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis. They are valuable to build scoring system ofprognostic assessment of chronic severe hepatitis and the scoring system is veryeffective to evaluate prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis.