Capability Of Model For End-stage Liver Disease In Predicting The Prognosis Of Patients With Massive Hemorrhage From Esophageal Varices

Objectives To evaluate capability of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in the predicting prognosis of 6 months and 1 year of cirrhotic patients with massive hemorrhage from esophageal varicosis treated byemergent sclerotherapy. Methods A cohort of 65 patients with massive hemorrhage from esophageal varicosis treated by emergent sclerotherapy were retrospectively studied and followed up. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC)curve was used to compare MELD with CTP score or classification in predicting accuracy of mortality risk.Results CTP score and MELD were different among patients who survived and those who died within six months or the first year of follow up. The area values under the ROC curve generated by the ROC curves for the MELD were all more than 0.8 in predicting 6 month and 1 year survival. However the differences of areas under the ROC curve between the MELD and CTP score or classification were not significant in predicting 6 month and1 year survival.Conclusions MELD is an accurate predictive system of 6 months and 1 year for cirrhotic patients with massive hemorrhage from esophageal varicosis treated by emergent sclerotherapy. The MELD value before EIS is very important for the selection of patients.