The Ambispective Cohort Study Of The Natural History Of HIV Infection Among Former Unsafe Commercial Blood And Plasma Donors

ObjectiveDiscussing the natural history and the influencing factors of HIV infection among former commercial blood and plasma donors engaged in unsafe blood donation practices in China.MethodsUsing ambispective cohort study,with data obtained from ten counties(districts) from six provinces in the National AIDS Control Demonstration Area.HIV/AIDS cases found and confirmed prior to July 24,2006 to be from former commercial blood and plasma donors were selected and data regarding infection,incidence,death,and influencing factors was collected.Analysis was performed using SPSS12.0 statistical analysis software.Results1.In 7551 cases of HIV infection,there were 6533 typical progressors(86.52%, 4.757 cases of AIDS),108 rapid progressors(1.43%),910 long-term non-progressors (12.05%).2.4865 cases have progressed to AIDS(64.43%).The median incubation period for HIV progression to AIDS was nine years(95%CI 8.96-9.04).According to data, from a total of 1157 AIDS cases without ARV therapy(23.78%of total AIDS cases), there were 283 confirmed AIDS-related deaths,of which the median survival time was 6 months(95%CI 4-7);the two and three year fatality rates were 95%and 99%, respectively.3.The duration of HIV incubation period is irrespective of gender and age at the time of HIV infection(P＞0.05).Length of survival for untreated AIDS showed correlation to gender(P＜0.05),but no correlation with culture,marital status,or age at the time of diagnosis of AIDS(P＞0.05).ConclusionCompared with the UNAIDS theory of adult slow disease progressors,our study shows a longer asymptomatic phase and shorter outlook for untreated survival,but a similar incubation period for other routes of HIV infection.