Risk Analysis On Investment In International Trading Enterprises

This thesis points out that international trade is becoming globlised with huge amount of enterprises participating directly or indirectly in it because it is the only way for the enterprises or even countries to achieve sustained economic growth and thus increase profit. Meanwhile, the operation in those enterprises becomes complicated and is confronted with various risks. When investors (including institute and personal) invest their money to those enterprises, they should know about the risk, or their investment would bound to be failed. With this background, this paper briefly explains several risks. In order to analyse these risks and establish model, it uses Multiple Linear Regression Model as a tool to study the relation between the risks and the stock price. And it explains how to make use of Excel spreadsheet to process the analysis. For application, Cathay Pacific Airway listed on HongKong's Stock Exchange is quoted as example. Its background is introduced and explained why it is chosen. The various risks it faced are analysed with description on the way Cathay Pacific used to reduce or spread them. This paper establishes model to take account of its stock price to be related to various risks. And tries to explain and forecast the fluctuation of its stock price. We can see the relation between theory and real market situation, and understand this kind of risk analysis is limited by some other variables. It should be applied carefully and flexibly. In order to protect investment and reduce risk, investors should adopt portfolio theory to determine their combination and thus buying and selling of shares.