The Analysis On The Cause Of Macro-economy Dis-equilibrium Under Opening Conditions And The Suggestion Of Countermeasures

At the end of 1990s, there appeared some characters of dis-equilibrium in the running of China's macro-economy. For the operation of micro-markets, for the development of different regions, the question and conflict of dis-equilibrium is increasingly severe and has been the dominant bottle-neck of China's further development. So to analyze the cause of formation and to search for the countermeasure is a very valuable task for China's economy. There're many documents about this project, but few involved opening conditions analysis. Based on the background of open economic environment, the writer tried to draw out the common exoteric factors of both the two dis-equilibrium phenomena, and seek some interior link between the dis-equilibrium economy and the open economy.In this paper, the writer documented the theory of dis-equilibrium economy, neo-classical hypothesis of tending the same , and two comparative advantages theories, then construct a "Two-stage Model" of three micro-markets, and modified the "Export base Model". These analyses showed that: (1) under the exoteric conditions, foreign trades could change the industrial structure of the country by affecting the status of the factor endowment. So it was the dis-equilibrium of industrial structure but not the compact from open economy that made these questions appeared in nature; (2) in the middle and west region of China, the reason of being in poverty was not the applying of static comparative advantages. On the contrary, that not having brought the advantages into play was the important cause. After the analysis of the cause of dis-equilibrium phenomena under exoteric conditions, the writer discussed the question about selection of the countermeasures from the opening angle. From the theoretic analysis, this paper indicated that: for the part of the country's entire economy, the theory of dynamic comparative advantage may be of more instructive significance; but for the interregional dis-equilibrium question, the neo-classical static comparative advantage theory should play a more important role in the decision-making. At the end of this paper, the writer put forward the suggestion of the countermeasures.