Research Of Macroeconomic Early-Warning Based On Rough Set And Artificial Neural Network

Discussing on the present development of Macroeconomic Early-Warning,this paper points to the present problems about Macroeconomic Early-Warning;at the same time ,it introduces the theory of Macroeconomic Early-Warning and discusses on the problems ,such as ,the design of early-warning(E-W) indexes ,the choice of E-W model ,and the decision of E-W deadline .By analyzing two methods: Artificial Neural Network(ANN) and Rough Set(RS),we connect the theory of rough set with artificial neural network and build the model of Macroeconomic Early-Warning System based on rough set and artificial neural network(ME-RSANN).On the basis of it ,the paper introduces the basic content about ME-RSANN and researches the realization of early-warning ways including the structure model of MS-RSANN, resolvement of problems during operation of early-warning model , the design of specific early-warning deadline,and so on;finaly, using statistics data, we carry out quantitative analysis according to the model of ME-RSANN.