| Flood disaster is one of the most frequent natural disasters around the world, especially in China. Flood impact is sustaining and complicated. So it is necessary to evaluate the flood disaster impact on economy, environment, and human health timely, exactly and comprehensively.Synthetical methods were used to develop an index of comprehensive assessment after flood. Firstly, we reviewed the literature extensively and conducted a widely epidemiological investigation on the flood impact on economy, environment, and human health in Hunan province, P.R.China after severe flood disaster in 1998.Based on the literature review, epidemiologic investigation, and the theory of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the initial evaluation system of flood impact was established, which include six first rank indicators and seventy-four second rank indicators. An expert panel consisted of 30 specialist was convened and Delphi process was used to screen and determine all the indicators and their importance (weight). After three round consultations, the model of comprehensive assessment on flood impact was set up, which included six first rank indicators and twenty-four second rank indicators. The mean value of every indicator is regarded as its primary weight.Among first rank indicators, direct casualties resulted from flood and economic loss in flood have the largest weight (0.2123, 0.1807); increases of diseases incidence and excess mortality rate have the similar weights (0.1715, 0.1745); spiritual injured and psychological effects have the least weight (0.1038); the weight of epidemic focus expansion and infectious vector spreading is 0.1572. Twenty-four second rank indicators and their weight were: flood attack rate (0.0711), mortality rate directly resulted from floods (0.0793), injury rate directly resulted from flood (0.0619), difference of total prevalence rate before and after flood (0.0514), difference of infectious and parasitic diseases incidence rate before and after flood (0.0677), difference of prevalence rate of digestive system diseases before and after flood (0.0524), difference of total mortality rate before and after flood (0.0460),Abstractdifference of mortality rate of infectious and parasitic diseases before and after flood (0.0485), difference of accidental injury mortality rate before and after flood (0.0377), difference of total mortality rate in adult before and after flood (0.0423), incidence rate of PTSD in adult (0.0269), incidence rate of persistent reexperiencing symptoms of PTSD in adult (0.0238), incidence rate of PTSD in the population beyond 65 years old (0.0261), incidence rate of arousal increasing of PTSD in adult (0.0271), increased area of positive snail inside village (0.0315), numbers of suffered acute schistosomiasis (0.0283), prevalence rate of schistosomiasis (0.0264), rat density (0.0249), positive rate of leptospirosis antibody in human population (0.0238), positive rate of renal syndrome hemorrhagic fever antibody in 15-49 years old population (0.0222), type of flood (0.0500), rate of house collapsed (0.0476), total econimic loss resulted from flood every family in flood year (0.0412), total economic loss resulted from flood per person in the flood year (0.0417).The index of comprehansive assessment (ICA) on flood impact was established by sythetical scored method. The degree of flood impact was divided into four grades according to the percentiles of the index of comprehensive assessment, which is mild flood (=P95). The results of variance analysis (ANOVA) showed that the difference of ICA value among five grades (include no flood) is significant (F=84.78, PO.01), the difference of ICA value between any two grades is also significant. It is indicated that the distinguishability of ICA is satisfactory. Correlation analysis showed that relativity of indicators contained in the model is weak or without.The Delphi technology is an acceptable evaluation tool in ICA establishment...
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