Analysis Of The Shipper' Port Choice Based On Disaggregated Model

Research on the planning and management for the port industry is very important. Usually, we use traditional methods and past information to forecast the total tonnage and flow direction of the cargoes, based on which, to make the production plans and so on.But with the development of containerization and the increase of access methods over land, ports are in great competition now. Shippers can choose and transport their cargoes to a port more easily. Cost, time and service became the main factors influencing the competition. Therefore understanding the port-users' selection process and result is very important to port operators and it is also a brand-new project.This paper covers the analysis of the shipper's port selection based on Disaggregated Model and the Utility Theory. Disaggregate Model is a widely-used methods on broad. Mainly used in the field of transportation planning, especially in the field of road an d air transportation.First, the paper explains the development and the basis of the corresponding theory. Then, the paper analyzes the factors that will influence the port selection of the shippers'. After that, a utility formula is established, with the application of the collected data, the paper provides an example of the theory with result.The main purpose of this paper is to provide some reference on port management in terms of theory.