Research On Imports And Exports Seaborne Volume Of China Petroleum Based On System Dynamic

Freight volume forecast acts as the precondition and base of planning and construction of dock, fleet and transportation infrastructure. With the increment of petroleum imports and exports, it is necessary to forecast seaborne volume of China petroleum.Base on the status quo analysis of the world petroleum supply and demand and the seaborne volume of China petroleum imports and exports, the paper selects system dynamic as the study method on it and establish Vensim system dynamic emulate model. Then the paper estimates the parameter of the model with different techniques such as econometrics and emulates the seaborne volume system of China petroleum exports and imports in 2010 with Vensim. Finally, the author simulates the influence of WTO entrance on petroleum seaborne volume with policy analysis implement of system dynamic.The paper successfully forecasts the petroleum seaborne volume of China in 2010 with system dynamic and other forecast methods. It is the attempt in the field of freight volume forecast with system dynamic. This technique could be applied further in the field of freight volume forecast and transportation planning, then the paper put forward some problem for further study.