| The target of enterprise operators is the maximization of profit, but together with the biggest risk. How to achieve a balance between the anticipated profit rate and its tolerable risk becomes the task to be solved by the enterprises. In the past time, many enterprises hedged mainly for the sake of spot transaction risk prevention, when they failed in hedge, they turned to attribute the reason of failure to miscellaneous causes instead of taking some compensation measures, let alone striving for the speculative profit by taking advantage of the future market. Hereby we propose an option of "hedge controlling risk, speculation striving for profit" as a solution.It has been a misunderstanding among the theoretical circle as well as the public, that speculation is improper in operation. Therefore heavy restrictions have been taken against it, which has resulted in over-cautiousness and even passing away from it in enterprises' investment activities. Even if there is a chance of speculations, they let the profit-making chance passed by! This essay is to give some fair review of speculation and try to clarify the notion in both the public and theoretical circle.It has important practical significance for manager to keep away risk and receive maximize profile, that speculation is understood correctly and combined by hedge.The new points of this dissertation is that the hedge portfolio investmenttheory joined speculation .The hedge portfolio investment mode extend to the mode of hedge combining with speculation: the invest position of spot position + hedge position has become spot position + hedge position + speculation position. Correspondingly, the hedge combination invention model has become hedge joined speculation mathematical model. The new model has been analysed theoretically and is effective in enterprise's active application.The thesis proves the linear correlativity of spot price and future price by EXCEL software, calculates Correlation of two markets .hedge rate .regress equation by two market price and offers quantitative evidences for investment decision-making. In practice, the method show good operability.Significant conclusions: it is available in our market to get target profit and control venture by speculation and hedge combination.This thesis mainly includes four parts: Part One: according to practical problems, analyses reason caused by theoretic mistakes, gives solving method of combination of hedge with speculation; Part Two: introduces basic theory of hedge and speculation, demonstrates speculation function and their relation; Part Three: offers mathematical model and analyses them theoretically; Part Four: proves the method right by practical application and result ; Part Five: a few of conclusions. |
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