Research On The Chongqing Housing Market Model

The real estate industry of China has been booming because of the policy of fostering the new economic growing point since 1998.However, because the industry experienced a short time, the enterprises were to be successful and the consumers seemed to have heterogeneous tastes, there happened to be a lot of problems, such as the vacancy rate of the merchandised houses has been on high level ,which is deeply beyond the international vacancy rate red standard; the increase of the disposable income of residents has been left behind that of price of the real estate industry, their demands have been gradually decreased .On the other hand, the task which is to better the housing conditions of the median and low income households of China is still heavy. Until now there are one point five billion square meters of dangerous houses to be maintained, thousands of families whose construction area per person is below eight square meters. Under this background, it has become an important subject to improve the operating efficiency of the real estate industry, to advance its rationalization and standardization. Based on the Chongqing housing market ,the dissertation makes analysis of the Chongqing housing market dynamic balance, and absorbance of the advanced foreign analytic techniques and experience of the housing market, so that it has done the systematic analyses of Chongqing housing market structure,and the behaviors of the consumers and the enterprises. The paper makes use of the knowledge of real estate economics ,investment economics,technique economics,urban economics and statistics, does the analysis on the discrete choices of the consumers and the investors and builds up three logit models. With the help of the techniques and advanced experience from the foreign housing market models, there is built up a Chongqing housing market model, based on the command of the inner characteristics of the Chongqing housing market. The parameters are calibrated through the observed data, so that the model is well fit to the fact of the Chongqing housing market. It is simulated that the cost of construction in Shapingba District is reduced by ten percent in each period from the observed cost in the same period. The changes of the two bedrooms and the three bedrooms in house value,rent and rental demand are given. It shows that the values of the two bedrooms have increased deeply, so are the rental number and the rent; contrary, the values of the three bedrooms have been lowly increasing, the rental number is not stable, and the rent is maintained at six hundred yuan around. Finallyaccording to the shortcomings and the flaws, the future researches are pointed out.