The Analysis On Factors Of The Unstable Dividend Policy And Empirical Study In China

As regards to the listed company, the dividend policy is the kernel of the profit distribution and one of the main contents of finance management for modem companies. The dividend policy is the logical continuity of the collecting money and investing activity for companies, at same time, suitable and stable dividend policy not only can help enterprises establish fine image but also can arouse the investors' sustained investment enthusiasm.The overseas commenced dividend policy research in 1950'. After more than 40 years development, western dividend theory has been enriched in different points. Traditional school includes bird-in-hand theory, MM theory and tax difference theory ; Modern school mainly contains clientele effect thought, signaling hypothesis and agency cost theory. Our country began to probe the issue of dividend policy in the middle and the end of 1990' and formed two angles of views: the first is to analyze market response to the different dividend announcement from the view of investors, that is to say, the market effect research of the dividend distribution policy; the second is to analyze influential factors and economy motives behind dividend policy from the view of listed companies.During the history procedure of Chinese capital market, it is not difficult to find that the dividend policy is very unstable, which can do harm to the healthy development of stock market and gives rise to the highly importance from the supervision department. Only by hunting the influential factors of the unstable dividend policy can we keep this kind of unsteady phenomenon within limits. This thesis discusses around the influential factors of unstable dividend policy, filling in vacancy that our country hasn't systematic research in this aspect. The thesis adopts standard and empirical evidence study methods, deducing and summing up factors of unstable dividend policy. Special stock share structure, insufficient market supervision, low proportion of managers' holding shares and the weak restriction from outside are deep causes of unstable dividend distribution. Unreasonable finance agency conducts and preference for stock share collection money result in unstable dividend policy. In this paper, Iadopt statistics test, such as Wilcoxon, Sign and Paired-Samples T Test, to prove hypothesis : companies whose ROE are at the edge of collecting money demand will dispatch cash dividend in order to adjust ROE, making it meet collecting money demand, point out the nature of dividend policy in China is collecting money as well. At the end of this thesis, the author uses fish bone shape drawing to summarize simply and clearly all the influential factors causing unstable dividend policy and put forward to multi-factor point of view.From the choice of topic to the multi-factor point of view, shows the ingenuity and becomes the innovation.