Research And Application Of The Port Logistics Forecasting System Based On Intelligence

Quickly expanding logistics brings important influence on all kinds of industry in global economy .As an important part in integrated transportation chain, port changes into port logistics rapidly. There are many influent factors on port logistics, including country or area polity, economic level of port hinterland, geography condition and weather status. These factors have uncertainty and variability by time, and bring large difficulty to forecast. So, launching the forecasting study on port logistics has very good realistic meanings, aiming at fact of domestic port.The Artificial Neural Network (abbreviated as ANN) has very strong robustness, fault-tolerance and learning ability. Because ANN is good at associating, summarizing, analogy and reasoning, it is used in various fields including forecast. Relations of factors in port system are nonlinear. Classed forecast method is difficult using nonlinear system; while ANN's excellent non-linear character is applicable to the system. For this reason, we can use intelligence method base on ANN into port logistics.This paper finds out a predicting approach of high accuracy, and researches ANN forecasting model for logistics based on discussing characteristic of port logistics. At the same time, it studies data warehouse and on-line analytical processing and design way of integrating with logistics forecasting system, which can provides required data for prediction from different angle. Then it satudies forecasting software, which includes classed method and ANN forecasting model and is used in port preoject. The main studying contents and results of this paper are as follows:(1) It studies thoroughly the logistics forecast, especially character of port logistics and requirement of prediction; then provides the function and structure of logistics system and method of software realizing.(2) It analyzes roundly the solution process and characters of classed forecast and ANN model, founds model of ANN forecast method and comes true relevant arithmetic with MATLAB toolbox.(3) It studies the methods of the programming interface between VB and MATLAB, and puts in practice. It puts forward intelligent forecasting system based on ANN, which has integrative character, friendly use interface and practicability validating by instance.(4) It discusses data warehouse and on-line analytical processing technology and building progress, analyzes the method and course of data obtainment in logistics forecast system based on data warehouse, which is used for decision-making.