The Theory And Method Study Of Real Option In Item Investment Decision

With the coming of the information economy, the getting rid of the stale and bringing forth the fresh, the fast changing of the investment item, the enterprise's investment decision in the course of management need to process in the uncertain environment. In the environment full of uncertainty, it is unpractical to make long-term and invariable decision, and it is very important to evaluate and use the uncertainty. The traditional investment decision methods can't adapt the need of the up-to-date investment decision because it neglected some uncertain factors, underestimated the value of the item, which caused the enterprise losing some valuable investment chances. The author analyzed the investment decision from the angle of real option which made up the traditional investment's deficiency.In this thesis, from studying the theory of the investment decision, the author analyzed the limitations of the traditional investment decision methods systematically based on the introduction of the traditional investment decision methods, and then put forward the real option method. In the study of real option theory, the author introduced the related financial options theory firstly, reclassified the real option, analyzed the influence of the uncertainty to the investment decision and the value of the real option, pointed out the practicability of the real option and designed the applied frame based on the real option theory. In the analysis of the real option method, the author analyzed the pricing of the real option in the first, and then analyzed the sensitivity of the real option based on comparing the related factors between financial option and real option, developed the real option strategic system of investment decision, At last the author analyzed the decision tactic of the real option method systematically, compartmentalized the area used the real option method and analyzed the area by using the data.The thesis considered the problem from the point of option and transfixed the thought into decision, it is very important to the decision-maker. The theory of real option provided the gist to the analysis of influence of economy environment change to the opportunity value, it canmake the investor analyze the change of the exterior environment and adjust the investment scale, investment opportunity and investment field in time to enhance the go-aheadism and flexibility, it also can make the necessary modification and complementarity of the traditional investment decision method.