Empirical Analysis Of Chinese Listed Company Based On Real Option Pricing Method

M&A has played more and more important role in the economic life since 1970's. Economists attempt to make relatively rational explanation for M&A from different angles. Option theory has developed quickly in these twenty years, and has made great difference in economics. It has already been applied to the theoretical research in strategic investment. M&A is a kind of typical strategic investment, and has very strong option characteristics. Here we will analyze the case that Beijing Beer Co.Ltd merged Huiquan Beer Co.Ltd. basing on real option pricing method. There are six parts in this paper.Chapter one is preface. It includes the purpose of title, domestic and international research and the problems solved in this paper.Chapter two explains the basic intensions of M&A at first, then introduces different types, analyses the motives and effects, practice at home and abroad, the development trend and the M&A means of Chinese listed company.Chapter three compares traditional value methods with real option pricing method. If we assess M&A only using one of traditional value methods, we often neglect the value of the management flexibility rights and underestimate trade value of M&A. But considered the value of these rights in option pricing method, so the value will press even more close to the true value of the enterprise.Chapter four analyses the option characteristics of M&A at first: the uncertain income of M&A, the value of waiting to invest, the transition natures in the course of M&A. Investors not only can hold stocks, then change them into the stocks of the united company, but also can sell them and hold cash. At last, introducing the surplus distribution models of Erwan Morellec.Chapter five is the empirical analysis: the Chinese listed companies Beijing Beer Co.Ltd. and Huiquan Beer Co.Ltd. using the surplus distribution models of Erwan Morellec. Following is my discovers: firstly, the two companies have made the "win-win" result; Secondly, additional value is produced during the course of M&A which depends on the size of capital stocks of two companies, and the market value of the stocks, the growth of Huiquan Beer Co.Ltd, the correlation of the core business; thirdly, Merge threshold changes in the same direction as the price average and variance of Beijing beer Co.Ltd. change, in the opposite direction as Huiquan Beer Co.Ltd and the correlation between the two companies core business change. It is more sensitive than other factors that it is influenced by the stock price; fourthly, before the time of M&A announcements,Abstractthe accumulation income owned to shareholders of Huiquan Beer Co.Ltd. changes in the same direction as the price average and variance of Beijing Beer Co.Ltd change, in the opposite direction as Huiquan Beer Co.Ltd. and the relevant between the two companies core business change; fifthly, the abnormal returns produced after the time of M&A announcements and most of that is occupied by the shareholders of Huiquan Beer Co.Ltd. Chapter six is the conclusion.Xu Yun(Finance) Directed by Yang Chunpeng...