The Optimization Research Of Purchase Forecast And Decision Under ERP Circumstance In WanTong Company

Under circumstance with increasingly fierce competition, only through market-orienting, can an enterprise found internal problems, improved better and better, finally be successful.This paper mostly solves the issue from three aspects of purchase decision aiming at inventory problem under ERP circumstance in WanTong Company.At first, this paper analyzes the competitive surroundings of WanTong Company, and points out that it has high stock cost, especially raw material stock, slow inventory turnover. In order to solve the problem, correlative aspects must be improved and optimized involving request forecast, purchase order decision and comprehensive evaluation on suppliers.Then, this paper sets forth the theory basis of purchase decision, including ERP system, purchasing process, and purchasing systematic flow in ERP , etc.In research of request forecast optimization, via data mining from ERP system base on the analysis of present forecast system, this paper uses Moving Averages and Seasonal Factor methods of Times Series Analysis to forecast products requirement. Forecast precision must be paid attention to be improved.In research of order decision optimization, at first this paper classifies the materials scientifically, then correspondently choices order strategy. For optimize order quantity, principle is to utilize Mast Production Planning and BOM of ERP system creating materials' lead time and quantity, and then using statistical method to confirm reasonable order quantity and time. Finally, this paper uses hierarchy analysis method combining linear programming to select and evaluate suppliers.This paper uses advanced management technique and modern management idea, at the same time combines ERP system to optimize the three aspects of purchase decision.