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The Logistic Program Of Costal Oil

Posted on:2005-10-22Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:G W FengFull Text:PDF
GTID:2156360122996763Subject:Transportation planning and management
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Oil is the blood of economy, the most important resource and strategic material for the safety of one country. Ever since the opening policy of China, especially after acceding to WTO, her economy and oil consumption have increased rapidly and continuously, which enables China to become the third biggest oil consumption country in the world, only after America and Japan. However, oil output of China has grown little in recent years, which leads to the huge increase in her import of oil, among which import of crude oil has reached 90 million tons a year, and the number will increase to 100 million tons "a year. At the same time, the imbalance in distribution of oil and productive force has also given birth to the chronic situation of "transportation of north oil to the south, west oil to the east". In the age of logistics, we must design and plan oil logistic center according to principles of modern logistics, so as to ensure the oil safety of China, and to strengthen her ability to develop continuously.This paper studies the distribution of demands and supplies for oil systematically and analyses the conditions of main oil ports in China. Then, using Box-Jenkins model, the paper forecasts the amount of China's oil imports and process in following years. Based on these, it plans and designs the center ports for crude oil transportation and sets up a logistic model for address-selecting to get the lowest costs and satisfy various demands. The optimistic results for 2005 and 2010 are got through the relatively advanced genetic algorithms. The model simulates the domestic trade for crude oil with her center ports located in Dalian, Qingdao, Ningbo, Zhoushan, Shenzhen and Maoming.
Keywords/Search Tags:Oil, Forecast, Logistic model, Genetic algorithms
PDF Full Text Request
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