Research On Ship Investment Opportunity

Ship investment is a capital investment, which is more than 30% of the total running cost, so owners pay great attention to it, for this investment influence the ship's net revenue, then influence the fleet's cash flow and revenue. Owner must chose the proper opportunity to buy a ship, in order to reduce the ship's capital cost and let the ship come into the shipping market with low cost.This paper analyses the world economics and world shipping, reviews and outlooks the shipping market, and deduce the different kinds of vessels demand from the above qualitative analysis; then analyses the ship's volume of holding, newbuilding, booking order and demolishing, which is the ship supply. This paper also analyses the various facts which infect the price of newbuilding ship, secondhand ship and hulk, using cost method, cost adding profit method, contribution method, analogy method to fix the newbuilding ship price; using analogy method, depreciation method and present revenue method to fix the secondhand ship price; using item estimation method and deadweight conversion method to fix the demolishing ship price.This paper apply the time series method to the 5-year-old secondhand bulk carrier price index, conclude the index actual rule, including the trend, seasonal fluctuation and period circle, then deduce the ship investment opportunity from comparing the secondhand ship price index fluctuation with the shipping market fluctuation.