| The normal running of the macroeconomy depends on the systematical working of each micro individual. There are many macroscopical factors in the forming of financial risks, but this kind of risk is accumulated on the micro aspect at first, and then form macroscopical financial risks gradually. The conducting course can't be ignored. We set about from micro enterprises and analyse the conducting mechanism which transmits from financial crises of enterprises to macroscopical financial risks in this article.This article consists of four parts. In the first part, we explain the concept and reason of the enterprise financial crisis and macroscopical financial risks. And then we analyze the relation of two aspects.We consider the financial crisis is a kind of state that an enterprise is unable to repay debts and has to carry on technical clearance or bankrupt on schedule. The reason defined like this lies in that it is a kind of noncompliance in fact that the enterprise bankrupts because of the financial crisis. This kind of noncompliance will lead to the fact that the enterprise is shifted its own risk outwards, or shift to the financial institution directly, or shift to other enterprises directly and then shift to the financial institution indirectly. The transformation make the financial institution become the concentration of the risk.Fundamentally the origin cause of formation of financial risks lies on each economic subject. The enterprise, financial institution and government have important function on the forming of financial risks, and it has specific the mode of forming and conducting. The enterprise is a carrier of the real economy, and is the elementary cell of the social economy, and is the important source of the wealth of society. As for borrowers and fund application of the financial institutions and banks in the money market, the performance and risk of the enterprises not only concerns their own existence and development, but also influences the quality of the assets of the financial institution directly. The risk that the enterprise forms is accumulated in the financial institution, and because of the management behavior of financial institution, perhaps the risk is expanded or dissolved.In the second part, We carry on the positive analysis to the factors which influence the financial crisis from financial rate of the enterprise. And we set up financial crisis and discriminant models further.The research object of the discriminant model of financial crisis is the listed companies, And determine the companies that are "special trade" for "the financial situation is unusual" as the financial crisis companies. We chose 16 financial rates of influencing managing and financial situation of enterprise as the independent variable in research. First we use 5 years' sample data, and choose several remarkable indexes from 16 rates; Second, in order to improve the credibility of the model, the data are divided into two parts by ST data in the last year. One is used in the setting-up of the model, another is used to test the models that are set up; Third, we use the data that companies ST before 2 to 4 years to test, in order to find the predictive ability. Through discriminant, we draw the result of predicting before 4 years .The meaning of model lies in this. A main one to offer information of predicting for each side in market. Such as the administration and supervision authorities of the enterprise may take measures to prevent the emergence of the crisis in good time. The organization of credit can adjust the credit scheme of this enterprise in time. The micro subject enhances the ability to control risk in order to dissolve macroscopical financial risks effectively.In the third part, We analyze the mechanism of conducting from financial crisis of the enterprise to macroscopical financial risks theoretically. And do the positive research about the mechanism of conducting.The financial crisis of the enterprise has caused the deterioration of the relation between banks and e...
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