| Exchange-rate is important to manage national economy. With the economic globalization and financial libernalization, as the main means of controlling and economic lever in nation's macro economy, the exchange-rate has acted more and more obvious function to nation's economic development. Equilibrium exchange-rate is one of core in exchange-rate theories, and main objective basis to judge whether exchange-rate level maladjustment and exchange-rate policy need to be adjusted.Since the Financial Crisis in Asia, the issue about RMB's exchange-rate policy have never stopped: After several years from the Financial Crisis in Asia, most domestic and international scholars have anticipated RMB would depreciate; Since 2001, the noise expecting RMB will revalue gradually occupied the predominant position; Developed nations especially the United States, Japan continuously bring pressures to China, requiring RMB revaluing. So we must face the problem that whether the real RMB's exchange-rate level is reasonable? How about RMB's equilibrium exchange-rate level? Up to the present, researches have expressed that the problem is very complicated, not only simple "revalue" or "depreciation" can clearly explain.Base on equilibrium exchange-rate in developing country theories model(ERER) of Sebastian Edwards(1989) and Elbadawi(1994), this article uses Chinese macro economic data from 1985 to 2003, according to ADF Unit Examination and Engle-Granger Two Foot Works Cointegration Analysis, chooses main economic factors that affect RMB's exchange-rate, establishes RMB's equilibrium exchange-rate model(ERER) and Error Correction Model(ECM); Base on RMB's ERER model, uses H-P Filter to evaluate equilibrium and deviation of RMB's exchange-rate from 1985 to 2003.According to research and analysis, expresses:(1) Affecting RMB's equilibrium exchange-rate positive factors primarily contain government expenditure(LNGV), import tax rate(LNTM), terms of trade(LNTOTI), government revenue from tax surplus amount(LNTT), negative factor is the variety of currency supply(LNM). And the most important of above factors affecting RMB's equilibrium exchange-rate is terms of trade(LNTOTI) which flexibility coefficient is up to 2.117182. As a result, improving terms of trade is the most valid path to increase RMB's equilibrium exchange-rate. At the same time, US$/RMB nominalexchange-rate(LNE), clean afflux in capital(LNH), domestic total output value(LNGDP), export back tax rate (LNTX) have no obvious relativity with RMB's equilibrium exchange-rate. It suits the fact that RMB's exchange-rate pegs US$, capital item is controlled, the opening degree of trade is not high.(2) During 1985 to 2003 years period, RMB's exchange-rate was overestimated 3 times and underestimated 3 times. In 1985, the overestimating number was up to 29.01% seriously, and in 1993 the underestimating number reached -19.72% seriously. From 1994 when RMB's exchange-rates were merged, RMB's equilibrium exchange-rate has appeared the up-trend. Though the Financial Crisis in Asia, the degree of deviation let up gradually, It explains that the ability of the National Central Bank adjusting exchange-rate is increased gradually.(3) Because RMB's exchange-rate policy target is not clear and RMB's exchange-rate formation mechanism is special, the function of RMB's exchange-rate is exist obvious shortage to national economy in equilibrium adjusting process. So we need to certain the target level of RMB's exchange-rate, reform and perfect RMB's exchange-rate formation mechanism, establish formation mechanism that through market's supply and demand to discover equilibrium exchange-rate, fully make well adjusting function of RMB's exchange-rate.(4) Compared with the RMB's official exchange-rate, RMB's real effective exchange-rate can reflect the variety of our country's ability of competition more objectively and equitably. Therefore, the National Central Bank should establish a set of index to monitor the variety of RMB's exchange-rate, establish quarterly and annu... |
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