A Study On Qualitative Simulation Model And System Of Market Demand Forecast

In this thesis, the Qualitative Simulation Model and System of Market Demand Forecast have been studied, which integrate fuzzy engineering theory, qualitative simulation technology, artificial intelligence, and modern marketing management theory.Firstly,background, purpose and significance of this thesis are clarified. Then general situation of correlative area in domestic and abroad is introduced. And we definitely put forward the main problems under research of the thesis, that is, the qualitative analysis of market demand, the study on the qualitative simulation model of market demand forecast, the research on the qualitative simulation system of market demand forecast. Secondly, we define the boundary of market demand; research the most important influential factors of market demand and their correlation. Furthermore, we research the fuzzy evaluation method of system variables with trapezium subjection function. In addition, from the view of the enterprises, we analyze the necessity and basic steps of implementing the Demand Strategy. The third, after adequately analyzing the market demand and influential factors, we put forward the modeling thought of the qualitative simulation model of market demand forecast. We build the qualitative process knowledge base with process view method; specify the important factors which influence the market demand; split the whole system into some parts, so as to build the fuzzy qualitative simulation model based on the qualitative reasoning rule base.Finally, the exploitation environment, design principles, main functions and structures of the qualitative simulation system of market demand forecast are discussed. And the source of I/O data of the system is analyzed. Furthermore, we apply the simulation system, display and analyze the I/O data. In the end of this thesis, the summaries are concluded and further expectations are made as well.