An Empirical Analysis Of Dwelling House Price System In Shanghai City

Dwelling house price plays an active role in the dwelling house market. Overall recognizing and understanding the dwelling house price and the internal relationships among the dwelling house price system is very important to entirely comprehend dwelling house market action. Now, shanghai cities dwelling house market is the largest one in China according to the market capacity. Thus it is significant for shanghai city, or even for China to study and analysis the dwelling house price and price system of shanghai city.Generally speaking, the composing of the dwelling house price includes land development fee, the house development fee and various kit fees and taxes. Factors that affect the commercial housing sales price include the economic factor, policy factor, physics factor, environment factor, population factor etc. After 1987 charge of Land-use right transfer came into force in Shanghai City, the formation of the commercial housing sales price of Shanghai City basically is determined by the market supply and demand. The textual innovation lies in some substantial evidence analysis about the dwelling house price system of Shanghai City. These substantial evidences analysis includes following three aspects:First,this paper built one simultaneous equation model of Shanghai City commercial housing sales price. By that model, the author make use of Three-Stage Least Squares estimation method to study the different function of each main influence factor aiming at the merchandise residence price change, and got some meaningful conclusions. Currently Shanghai City commercial housing sales price is subjected to influence of the dwelling house construction cost and investment more and greatly. The dwelling house supply show positive correlativity with I the preceding price, and the dwelling house demand also show positive correlativity with the current price. Because Shanghai City dwelling house demand is more than the dwelling house supply, the Shanghai City commercial housing sales price still has the space to certainly continue to soar by pull of the dwelling house demand in the current period.Second,using Cointegration relationship test ,Granger Causality test and Regression test ,the author get some conclusions about relationship between commercial housing sales price and existing property bargain price in Shanghai. Commercial housing sales price is the dominant factor of existing property bargain price in long run while they are explanatory variable of other in short run given the sample of monthly price index of commercial housing and existing property from 2001 to 2004.Third,the author analyses the relationship between estate price and land price with Cointegration relationship test,Granger Causality test and Regression test ,and draw the conclusion that estate price is the dominant factor of land price in long run while they are explanatory variable of other in short run given the sample of season price indexes of estate and land from 1999 to 2004.By means of the empirical analysis, this paper concludes that government should hold dwelling house market price system, harmonize each other and try to make all levels dwelling house market benignly develop in order to impel the entire real estate marketplace to maintain long-term and steady development, when carrying on macroscopic regulation and control of dwelling house market price.