Early Warning Research Of New Technology Enterprise Marketing Risk Based On BP Nerve Network

The indetermination marketing faces is more and more as the enterprise's internal and external environment is increasingly complicated. Therefore enhancing the early warning of marketing risk to avoid unnecessary loss has gradually become the premise,which makes enterprise's development normal and stable. However current earlywarning method and model of marketing risk still have many limitations. It's hard forthem to handle those highly nonlinear problems. The analysis and prediction conclusion isn't complete and accurate enough.The early warning critical value and value range is indirect, time-consuming and this paper breaks through the conventional early warning model of marketing risk,discussing the application of BP network to marketing risk warning. It illuminates that both the characteristic of BP network and low-level basic management in Chinese corporation make BP network's application to the early warning research of enterprise marketing risk fesible. And why three-layer BP network is chosen to finish the idea is also explained. At the same time, the establishment, training and test of this BP model becomethis article's research emphases. Test result shows the model is feasible and valid. It can estimate marketing risk reasonably and help make marketing decision.So the model is applied to an empirical research in certain enterprise to find out the countermeasure that can obviate marketing risk by judging enterprise's risk grade and analyzing risk content. Finally the composition, structure, function, and principles of marketing risk early warning system are presented, which applied to enterprise marketing mariagemeht and based on the three-layer BP network model. In a word, this paper supplies-a new idea and means for further early warning study of enterprise marketing risk.