The Study On Risk Analysis Methods Of Nature Gas Exploration Project In Changqing Oilfield Company

Stateowned Petroleum Company of China has been made great progress in the aspects of operation management and technique innovation after ten years of commercial reform. As one of the biggest petroleum company in china ,Petrochina is faced with the great challenge and pressure with China's entering into the WTO and Petrochina come into market. Because the investors concern not only profits but also the safety of their investing. To attach importance to the project risk analysis is important to the company to win investors's favour.Changqing Oilfield Company (PCOC) is the affiliated company of PetroChina Company Limited, which is the most fast develeoping company in PetroChina. The main nature gas exploration field of Changqing Oilfield Company is E'erduosi basin which has abundantnature gas resource but complex geologic condition. The risk of exploration is so high that establishing project risk analysis is very important to success exploration and development this kind of nature gas reserve.At first, This text introduces project risk analysis theory and it's uses in petroleum industry project management to clear it's uses in nature gas exploration project. Based on the risk analysis status of ChangQing exploration project the text conclude the main problems in this aspect which include no risk analysis system , less risk analysis methods and weakness base for risk analysis. According to nature gas exploration project risk management practice and academics from inland and overseas the text put forward a system to analysis exploration project risk in C hangQing Oilfield Company. By i ntroduce M onte Carlo Three Grades risk analysis and other techniques the text establish the main methods of exploration project risk analysis in ChangQing Oilfield company which include risk management planning risk identification qualitative risk analysis quantitative risk analysis risk value analysis risk response planning risk monitoring and controling. To test the system the text select the representative YuLin nature gas exploration project as an example which has a directing to other similar project.