The Application Of Evaluation,Prediction And Decision-making In The Investment Management

Regard the establishment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange as the sign, our country stock market is from nonexistence to existence, from small to large, after more than ten years of development, has already begun to take shape. It has already become the important field in which the production system raise fund now, is also an important point of growth of the national economy at the same time. So it is necessary to do research for the management of investment to the stock market, to heighten the level of investor and the ability to supervise of the supervision, foster and perfect the stock market of our country together, keep the steady and continuously growth of national economy.The course of investment securities can be regarded as the investment management of evaluating n predicting and making decision on the target of investment, this text focuses on the management of investment, systematically considered the application of evaluation, predict and make policy in it. First of all, set up a kind of evaluative methods based on the vertical and horizontal appraisal plural time sequence, try hard to fully utilize information that the data contains, give the index weight objectively, to reflect the business achievement of the listed company truly, and use this method to analyse the real example of 18 listed companies of Anhui local plate, choose several stocks which arrange in an order before examination and arrange in an order steadily as the target of investing in predicting and making decision next. Secondly, aimed at the character of high peak , thick tail and the variance changing over time of the single stock earning time sequence on our country market, adopte the advanced GARCH model to fit the earning ratio and fluctuation of the single stock selected, then carry on predicting the real example, and calculate the coefficient correlation between them, ready for last make decision of portfolio. Finally, utilize the classical portfolio model - the Markowitz's mean value-variance model to make decision of portfolio from several stocks selected, have obtained lower risk under the situation of the equal income, make the investment results anticipated .