Research On The Measure And Control Of Enterprises Financial Risk Based On Cash Flow

In this era, enterprise is being faced with and living in a complicated and uncertain environment. The rapid development of science, information technology, market economy and globalization increase the variety of the circumstance and financial risks of enterprise, whose latency and lags become a practical and critical question. At the same time, as a scarce resource, the sufficiency and effectiveness of cash flow do have an influence on enterprise's survival and development, and risks in the whole course of manufacturing, selling and cash receiving.On the basic of the relevant research achievements both in abroad and in home, the article approaches the theories and processes about the enterprise's financial risk combining the reality of China and the demand of risk management. The first part of this article probes into the risk theory from economic angle and puts forward that economic cycle, management cycle, market competition, unbalanced market and asymmetric information made the foundation of risk management. Then the article defines the financial risk and cash flow. Based on the relation between them a two-dimension structure of enterprises' financial risk management was built up, which include the time dimension that means the process of risk discern, risk estimate, and risk control and the space dimension which include financing link, operation link and investment link. The second part makes a concrete analysis of financial risk source and discriminates financial risk factors according to the sequence of financing link, investment link and operation link. After analyzed the existing methods of financial risk estimation, the third part revises the achievement evaluation index and creates the financial risk estimation index system based on the idea of cash flow management. And then the method of AHP is used to determine the weight of the risk estimation index. Further more a new model was built up in order to estimate the financial risk of companies by the application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. In the next part a series of risk control measures were offered according to the risk factors in each financial link. At last the article enumerates an example of ZJ company group to explain how to discern financial risk, estimate financial risk and control financial risk.