Microsimulation Of Market Dynamics Of Individual Car

Experienced from the international community to see, the automobile industries are all to play the prominent function in industrialize progress. But the main motive of the automobile profession development come from private purchase the car. Nearer in the last years, along with the development of the Chinese economy, the exaltation of residents' purchasing power, purchase the family of the car more and more, and the development of the car market also becomes biggest motive that arouses the Chinese automobile industry development.How accurate predict the demanding variety of the car market, the car produces the profession to will take place in future what fluctuation, more and more for become the problem that academic circles and governments concern. With other economic sections dissimilarity, the car market has the characteristics of long-lost, complexity. For the different income stratum, the car purchases the will different, so the economic model of very hard tradition predicts its need. In this kind of case, the microsimulation model becomes the most suitable for to do a system of description analysis method to the cars market. Microsimulation model is a kind of new policy analysis model in the western economic model with the development of computer technique in 1960s. Microsimulation model researches the micro unit, and simulates and analyses the allotment effect of policy, such as tax, housing, the society security...etc. In the socialism market economy system of our country, many reforms need to carry out and perfect. Therefore, this kind of model has the extensively applied foreground, and it will be a kind of indispensable tool to analyse and constitute the policy. The basic way of microsimulation: Getting the data document that it is consisted of the micro unit of the social economic system; Constructing simulation model according to the social activities; Using computer to simulate characteristic or micro unit and variable of relevant policy(such as price, tax, welfare etc.); Through statisical comparison, analysis, deducing and synthesizing of the characteristic variable, we get the policy influence of micro unit and the policy implement result of macro level. This paper provides a dynamic microsimulation model to analyze car demand in China. The model adopts the simulation method of event-based, and at any time changes to evolve forward. The model mainly includes two events: (1)The life events, include the death, bearing, education, marriage, taking up an occupation and income; (2) The policy carrying out events, include the financing and the providing of pension. We carried out that model in tiny and on board applied PHP language, the usage MySQL database is the data saving means. Whole imitate the process to all operate according to the database, the database includes the tiny view database and macroscopic databases. Personal tiny view data of the long spring City that saving our acquisition of tiny view database get, each record represents a certain period appearance of a tiny view individual, include door do not, sex, age, cultural degree, educate the condition, marital status, take up employment the condition, the profession belong to, the characteristics, such as occupation, the work time and income...etc. belong to.Applied grow the tiny view data of the spring City, we carried on private buy the emulation of the car market dynamic state to experiment. Experiment to in the future in few years demanding dynamic state of the car market variety trend. After carrying on the analysis to the need trend, this text again with the standpoint that evolve, according to experiment the result to the future the fluctuation circumstance of the car profession carries on to evolve the analysis in few years. Our research enunciation: The microsimulation model can be apply in to some one quantitative analysis and the estimate of the industry market. We carried on to set up the mold to the car buyer market, making sure to take family as to buy the car unit to carry on the way of thinking that buys the car, the usage population sampling data of the long spring City, to private purchased the dynamic state of the car market to carry on to imitate the experiment. Experiment the result enunciation, in any longer and period(20 years)ly, along with personal with the family income of exaltation, buy annually the car quantity will experience a rise gradually of process. Then along with the further exaltation of the income, the residents lower to the need income flexibility of the car gradually, every year of buy the car quantity and will descend gradually. A period of future inside, the car retention quantity is opposite and will have the significant exaltation in the current level.The car preserve the growth of the quantity and will put gradually slowly, and end tend in the stability. Buy the car quantity and also will be tend in the stability annually at this time, the car market will enter an opposite and stable appearance. At this time because of at experience a compares the long time after, the old car will enter to discard the stage gradually, buy the car to mainly drive the dint and will become the old car to...