S Study On Land Use Structure Analyse And Forcasting Of Taiyuan City

Land use structure refers to the proportion of all kinds of the land use pattern . It is t the reflection of the disposition and use status of the land resource among every industry, it is the reflection of the proportionate relationship among all kinds of land use patterns too.The land use structure determines its function, and the rational land use structure can keep the land use system in benign cycle,can improve the comprehensive efficiency of the land use, can promote every department of regional national economy to develop in harmony, and then promote the sustainable development of social economy. To formulate and implement the rational regional land use tactic, we must understand the characteristic of the land use structure from different points of view and level, find the question existing in the land use course, analyze the factor that influence the land use structure to change, explore the law that the land use structure to change, in order to offer the basis cf disposing the land resource rationally among every department of national economy and realize efficiency maximizes of the land use. Aimed at this, the article simulates dynamiclly and forcasts the change of land use structure of Taiyuan city on the basis of the analyse of its current structure.In this paper I analyse the land use current structure of Taiyuan city, study the factors that influence the land use structure to change, forecast its future land use structure applied Markov chain model and grey systematic model and explore its change characteristic and law on the basis of study the basic theories of the land use structure. The thesis can be divided into three parts:The first part is the basic theory study of the land use structure. In this part ,the author analyzes the significance and necessity of the land use structure study at first, makes a retrospect of domestic and international land use structure study, Then, the paper goes on research on the theoretical foundation of the land use structure, establishes the theory system based on System theory, Sustainable development theory, Position theory and Landscape ecology theory.In the second part, the author analyzes and researches the land use structure of Taiyuan city. First, the author analyzes the land use current structure of Taiyuan city, including the quantity structure , spatial structure and combined structure; Then the author studies the evolvement course of the land use structure of Taiyuan city land , explores its change characteristic and law, studies the social and economic factors that influence the land use structure to change; forecasts the people's scale, economic development and land use structure in 2010, analyzes the forcasting results, and put forward the suggestion to adjust the land use structure of Taiyuan. To forcast it its land use structure I apply Marlkov chain model and grey systematic model, and compare the two kinds of methods.The third part is the results and the discussion of the study.The result of study shows : The change of the land use structure can be affected by factors in many aspects. The study of the land use structure should base on System theory, Sustainable development theory, Position theory and Landscape ecology theory; the land use pattern of Taiyuan city is various, it mainly include cultivated land , forest land , residential and mining land, and disused land. Affected by factors in many aspects, the land use structure of Taiyuan changes constantly and quickly, its main characteristic is that the constant reduction of the area of farming land, especially the rapid reduction of the...