Research On Swarm-Based Modeling And Simulation For Capital Market

The capital market is a complex system with the characteristics of large scale, complicate structure, non-linear. It is hard to describe and analyze them with the math methods or other formalized methods. So we have to simulate the capital market by complex system model. In this paper we analyze the capital market with the Swarm-based model and simulate the relation between the micro behavior and macro behavior in complex system to understand and control the behavior of complex system. We discuss the capital market in four parts. First, we summarize the complex adaptive system and the complexity of capital market. Secondly, we introduce the agent-based continuous double auction (CDA) model in detail. We explain the trading mechanism of CDA, and then we discuss the decision-making process of the single trader Agent using the supergame theory and the forecast equation model. Thirdly, we introduce the Swarm simulation platform on the Java environment which includes the main idea of building Swarm model, the main structure module of Swarm model and the class libraries of Swarm. Finally on the base of the above two parts, we simulate the capital market complex system using the Swarm simulation platform. And then under the different combination of limit price and number of traders, we plot the changing trend graph of the bargain price of the market with the time in the capital market. And the simulation result is in consistent with the practical market situation. So the complex adaptive system method is suitable for the capital market.