The Study On Foreign Exchange Reserve's Management On Demand Side

The foreign exchange reserve is a core of the international monetary system, and it is an important problem of the international finance field too. It concerns the ability of various countries regulating the international revenue and expenditure and the ability of stablizing monetary exchange rate, and it has been receiving the general concerns of the international financial institution and governments of various countries all the time. Since the system reform of the foreign currency has begun in 1994, foreign exchange reserve of our country increase rapidly, whose scale up to the end of 2004 is up to 60,993.2 million dollars. The impact of great amount foreign exchange reserve on economy of our country is enormous. Whether the foreign exchange reserve of China meets the need of China's economic development, how large should the appropriate scale of the foreign exchange reserve of China is it have been questions of the dispute in theory circle all the time. However; an undoubted one is, setting up the reasonable scale of the foreign exchange reserve is the important insurance that the people of our country help the healthy, stable and sustainable development. This text is on the basis of defining that defines concept of appropriate scale of the foreign exchange reserve, summarize the pluses and minuses of different demand theories of the reserve, find out the most suitable method for calculating the appropriate scale of the foreign exchange reserve of our country, namely the analytical method of real example; draw lessons from the international and domestic existing real example analyse to the scale of the foreign exchange reserve and then, regard this special period before and after Asia finance crisis as the background, the ones that have compared the foreign exchange reserve influence factors of developing countries and developed country, think that because economic environments are different, the influence factors of each national foreign exchange reserve and influence degree of every factor also have differences, we must confirm each most suitable influence variable according to the concrete conditions of different countries. And then according to the concrete conditions of our country, this text choose the main economic variable that may influence the demand of foreign exchange reserve of our country, analyse, find out the variable that can reflect the demand of foreign exchange reserve of our country most exactly according to the analysis result, then carry on trend prediction according to foreign exchange reserve and relation of these variableses, offer reasonable foreign exchange reserve scale to judge the foreign...