Financial Predicament Prediction And Empirical Analysis Of Public Company Of China

With the promotion of the reform of securities market and fast development of the capital market of our country, the public company, more remarkably, has exposed in the intricate market risk. The more un-standard external prison of China's securities market, the imperfect mechanism of management that emerged inside the company and endogenous obstruction of institutional factor of the market came into being, changeful reform paces, impulse of capital seeking for proliferation, together all the reasons lead many public company to the inevitable destiny, bankruptcy or liquidating. The company faces the risk for "withdrawing market", the potential interests of the creditor, investor face suffering enormous losses. The financial predicament predicts that is regarded as an important respect of the early warning system of the financial affairs , can effectively play a monitoring role to company's financial situation. Then, through perfect economic forecasting method to set up effective financial affairs early warning system seems urgent day by day.The demonstration is carried on from three levels mainly. At first, according to the definition of the financial predicament and forefathers' principle, combine the actual conditions of security market up until now of our country and choose the sample. Secondly collect various kinds of financial indexes according to the request of modern financial theory, choosing the index of outstanding discerning rate in a situation that remarkable and competent. To reduce the number of variable of entering the model while guaranteeing to predict precision, thus reduce the model use cost and raise using value. Finally by taking the financial predicament enterprise as sample , utilizing the principle discussed with listed company and using mathematics and statistical method, we set up kinds of models, carry on analysis and comprehensively compare with them.Combined the norm, from many kinds of models, the last analysis have got some valuable enlightenment about predicting the financial predicament of enterprise and regular conclusion on the stock market of our country, for instance: close to falling into financial predicament stage , the higher predict dependability of the result is; The improvement of the the rate of predict accuracy can be better that the comprehensive application of the index; The model predicted has not sought unity of standard ,so the conclusion synthesized several kinds of models gets the proper judgement; Quantitative analysis is though accurate, objective,but unable to dispel the influence of prospertity or accounting data accuraty that the situation brings.