Statistical Analysis And Forecasting Methods Research Of Chongqing's Imports And Exports Trade

With the rapid development of foreign trade in Chongqing recent years, the foreign trade becomes more and more important in regional economy, but regional trade of imports and exports isn't deeply researched now. On the basis of present researches of foreign trade, and combining the item of Chongqing foreign trade and economic relation commission, this dissertation intends to make statistical analysis of Chongqing's foreign trade and forecast the total imports and exports from the perspective of regional foreign trade in order to provide decision support for foreign trade to manage it scientifically, constitute and regulate rules and policies on it reasonably and effectively, and organize and lead foreign trade corporations properly. The foreign trade development of Chongqing is reviewed by comparison at first, including the discussion of basic conditions, analysis of foreign trade development, and argumentation of constructure characteristics. Then with the statistics method of factor analysis, the main factors that effect on Chongqing's foreign trade are analyzed, the three main factors –the inner economic factor, the direct-effect factor and the outer economic factor –are also analyzed with the economic reality of Chongqing. The effects of foreign trade of Chongqing on regional economic growth are discussed as well, and from the calculating of contributes and promotion effects, it is found that the exports have more promotion effects on economic growth than imports. From regression analysis, the total imports and exports have positive correlation with GDP, thus the foreign trade has obvious acceleration effects on Chongqing's economic growth. On the basis of statistical analysis, some countermeasures and suggestions are offered. The recent studies on total imports and exports prediction usually use a single model, so the precision cannot achieve the idealized results. This dissertation aims at establishing two combined forecasting models based on rough set and algebra theory to adapt into the monthly data and annual data forecasting respectively. And with logical reasoning and abundant data, the conclusion is drawn that the precision and stability of the two models are better than one. A valid and practical method is proposed for accurate forecast of the total imports and exports.