Southeast Asian Perceptions Of A Rising China: Security Aspects

This thesis examines the perceptions of Southeast Asian states of a rising China in the early years of the 21^st century. Many analysts argue that China's unprecedented rise is generating both opportunities and challenges to the Southeast Asian region, thereby substituting the previous regional relations and mechanisms with an increasing pivotal role of China in this area's issues. Undoubtedly, Southeast Asian countries are culturally and ethnically linked with China, and this, coupled with a long history of fluctuating relations, contributes to shaping how they view China's rise. The perceptions in general can be studied from many angles. Nonetheless, in the scope of this paper, security aspects are the main pillar of the investigation. It does not mean that other factors which are tightly interwoven with security environs are neglected in the study, though.Hence, some remarkably influencing attributes such as historical background, trade, political relations, military enhancement, geographical location and the roles of Japan and the U.S. in the region are also cast an appraisal eye on to supposedly unveil the real perceptions of Southeast Asian states. Admittedly, relations between these countries and the People's Republic of China (PRC) are getting much better than in recent decades, when compared to the big suspicion that once defined and shaped their relations. China's image in the region have been getting more positive and more friendly since the late 20^th century when this country declined to devalue its currency in the 1997 financial crisis and its strong commitment to building a Southeast Asian region of cooperation and prosperity by joining some regional institutions and providing aids as well.The study encompasses three main parts: the evolution of China-ASEAN (Associations of Southeast Asian Nations) relations in recent years, ASEAN perceptions of China, and future trends in their relations. Discussion of the perceptions mainly deals with the each individual country's perceptions of China's rising power since this thesis accepts that perceptions vary among ASEAN countries due to their different historical experiences, cultural background, economic might and ethnic demography; there are, nonetheless, also some dominant perceptions that not only pervade the entire ASEAN region but they also define China-ASEAN relations. Examining ASEAN's perceptions in this manner enables us not only to trace the changes in perceptions, but also to identify the stimulus that led to these changes. In addition, the thesis is theoretically constructed on the filtered combination of many international theories since it is impossible to give a precise assessment of the diversified Southeast Asian perceptions of a rising China based on a single existing theory. Nonetheless, given the upward tendency, economic interdependence, multilateral engagement, ASEAN cooperation and China's commitments to the peaceful rise which are also strongly justified by other researchers' works, it can be said that the positive, sanguine views of China's rise in security aspects overwhelmingly prevail the reserved caution from a small proportion of regional military officials.Besides, by setting up a network of multi-layer dialogues, exchanging consultations and frequent exchanges of visits by leaders from both sides efficiently, China and ASEAN have enhanced the continual increase of mutual trust, support, cooperation and understanding. They also show their commitments to solving all the unresolved disputes and problems in South China Sea through the channel of negotiations and in the spirit of win-win benefits. In addition, non-official (Track II) diplomacy or informal talks among multi-level officials are also employed to augment the deepening of cooperation and the avoidance of misunderstanding.From those findings, there is an entailing widespread perspective that China's rise will pose no threat to the stability of the Southeast Asian region at least in the short and medium term.