Exchange Rate Volatility And The Labor Market In The Trade Department

Presently, the average wages of Chinese workers are lower at large, moreover the phenomenon of unemployment is serious, and the national announcement about the unemployment rate has only counted the unemployment situation of cities, not including 150 million rural surplus laborers. Adding it, the unemployment rate would reach as high as 20%. At the same time, RMB is appreciating gradually in a planned way. In the department of trade, the foreign trade relations have caused that various variables in the labor market and the exchange rate engender the significant relations.With the guidance of Marxism dialectic method and historical materialism, this paper analyzes the influences of RMB real effective exchange rate changed to the real wages, the employment population and the staff population in trade department, and discusses the mechanism, quantification relations between them. Then the paper makes the comparative analysis between the employment population and the staff population sensitivity to the exchange rate change, expounds the reasons causing the different responses; Afterwards I inspect the adjustment speed of each variable in the labor market. On the base of the predecessor research results and the successful experiences of other countries, I bring forward some policies and suggestions about how to increase the employment rate in the situation of keeping stable appreciation at the RMB exchange rate. According to this clue, this paper can be divided into six parts: The first part, namely the introduction section. On the base of the exchange rate change and the labor market real of our country, and gathering current domestic research degree on this question, this section explains theoretical and practical meaning of the investigation, works out the basically clue and structural frame, decides the study method of the article, and analyzes on the innovation and difficulty. The second part, namely the first part of this paper: the summarization of the domestic and foreign theories and research results about the exchange rate and labor market. First, introduce the foreign newest theory about the influence of exchange rate change to the labor market variables; Next, the summarization of the foreign experience research; Finally, the summarization of the domestic related fundamental research. The third part, namely the second part of this paper: the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the wages of trade department. Firstly define the wages variable of trade department; Then, adopt many kinds of ways to argue the relationship between the average real wages and RMB real exchange rate in the short or long run. There is long-term stable balanced relationship. The appreciation of the RMB can make the wages improve; moreover, when the proportion import input and export has a larger change, the fluctuation of exchange rate will bring more influences to the wages, then combining our country fact the section analyze the reason. The fourth part, namely the third part of this paper: the influence of exchange rate change to the employment of trade department. Firstly define the staff population of trade department, the employment population and the non-staff employed variable and so on. After the experience research we get the results in this paper: The appreciation of RMB brings a bigger drop for the staff population than employed population in trade department. At the same time, this also involves the question that the adjustment speeds of different variables in labor market. The fifth part also is the fourth part of this paper: Under the influence of exchange rate, the adjustment speeds of labor market and the influence factor. Put forward that the wage of trade department adjusted sluggishly, this not only has the universal reasons which the theory already discussed deeply, and also has the serious correlation with the labor market's imperfect; it not only because of the imperfect in the labor law and but also because the implement of the law is not strict. The adjustment of employment is quite complex, the adjustment elasticity of work-hour is bigger, the main source is that the implement of the law is not very good as well as the labor force supplies too much. Moreover weak strength of labor unions also becomes an important reason that the wages is difficult to raise and workers are requested working overtime casually. Combining the last experience research results and the actual situation we advance that the corresponding policies and proposals in the fifth part of this paper. Mainly elaborate from reducing the pressure of RMB appreciation and raising "the threshold" of the labor market adjustment.