Research Of The General Traffic Network System In Yangtze River Delta Economy Region

The speed of the regional traffic network development is far behind that of the regional economy and the urbanization development in Yangtze River Delta. The behindhand regional traffic network is the key" factor to block the integrative development of the regional economy of Yangtze River Delta (YRD). So that it is necessary and urgent to build the scientific, efficient and feasible system of the YRD regional general traffic networks. Building the modern general transportation combined with road, railway, waterway and aviation will promote cities in YRD region to be integrated into YRD regional urban group both in the form of spatial structure and in the mode of integrative economy. Building the developed integrative transportation will highly speed the development of the YRD region and the national economy.On the one hand, now there is lack of research about the YRD regional traffic network or regional traffic network. And the research about them is just qualitative analysis of the road construction or a city traffic network construction with the demand of the regional economy development. From the point of view of the region integral system there is little quantitative research on the model of the regional general traffic network. On the other hand, there is a lot of quantitative research on the microcosmic traffic system such as the real time forecasting of traffic stream, the real time control of road traffic or the traffic construction programming of a city. From the point of view of the macrocosmic there is little research on regional general traffic system such as the long time forecasting model of regional traffic stream, the regional traffic network programming model and the integrative traffic network construction model.Generally speaking, the regional traffic research system that combines the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis doesn't mature. So in this paper YRD regional economy and the regional traffic systems are acted as the research object,from the point of view of macrocosmic the regional integrative traffic network system of YRD is studied according to the integration both of regional economy and of regional transportation development.In this paper, in the term of the theory both of regional economics and of the region location the YRD regional traffic network structure and relation of the regional traffic system and economy system are analyzed. Furthermore the YRD regional traffic region location network, the selection of the transportation manner and the characteristic of the transportation form are studied and analyzed. On the basis of the above analysis the macrocosmic traffic programming control and microcosmic traffic management control is combined to build the hierarchy analysis model on the YRD regional integrative traffic network. So many quantitative models are put forward as the regional traffic network distribution optimization, the integrative traffic hinge building optimization and the integrative transportation proportion optimization.According to the case that the macrocosmic system is nonlinear and lack of testing data, the improved forecasting methods are proposed such as fuzzy exponential smoothing forecasting, center approaching gray prediction and the local multiple regression fuzzy (LMRF) model based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logical system. These improved methods are applied into the forecasting instances. The prediction accuracy of the stimulation result is testified and the improved forecasting methods are proved much better than conventional forecasting methods.In the paper, according to the relation between the regional economy system and traffic system the macrocosmic forecasting model of the YRD regional general traffic flow is built. The flow includes tendency traffic stream and induced traffic stream. According as the above forecasting methods and the regional traffic forecasting model the development of the YRD region economy, population and the tendency traffic flow are quantitatively forecasted by the testing data. The simulation of...