11th Five-Year Plan Demand Forecasting System Of Deyang City

Abstract: Since China carried out Reform and Opening to the Outside World, its economic and social progress, human resources development and scientific management level have made remarkable achievements, which help the aggregate national strength increase greatly. In 2003, China's per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded 1,000 U.S. dollars for the first time, which is expected to reach 3,000 U.S. dollars in the year of 2020. According to the law of world development process, when per capita GDP is between 500 to 3,000 U.S. dollars, the economic society has entered a new and critical stage, so that various social contradictions shall also become the most prominent. And the process of building a well-to-do society in China is also at such a special time. In this circumstance, the uncertain factors influencing economic progress, human resources development and scientific management will continue to increase. How to use scientific methods to deal with consequence caused by these uncertainties is the key that may decide whether China's modernization can go onto a new stage.Deyang City of Sichuan Province would still hold the leading position in a new round of economic development and realize the provincial committee's development objective of taking the leading role in modernization, which depends mostly on the construction of human resources reserve and new talents advantage in Deyang. There are many analysis and researches, both at home and in local province, on human resource development environment together with human resource demand forecasting model or system. However, until so far specific studies and corresponding results, which aim at local economic constitutes, development features and feasible human resource demand prognostications in local development environment, haven't been found both at home and in local province, and especially the forecast in view of Deyang's practical realities and the scientific one keeping up with the history of human resource development in Deyang haven't been developed. The system here takes that precondition as a starting point and bases on goals for urban development and the historical and real-time data for human resource proposed by "the 11th Five-Year Plan" of Deyang city, which uses various analysis methods adopting mathematical statistics, modern human resources management and computer technology. Owe to those methods and technologies, we have forecasted demand trends of the total number of personnel in Deyang City and five branches talented staffs, created the corresponding quantitative model and exploited forecasting system for talents demand.The principle of mathematical statistics for this system is as following: it adopts linear regression model based on the personnel numbers during the period of "15th National Plan" and the Regression Equation corresponding to the various GDP value, whose significance has already been tested. We can use the derived regression equation and consider the GDP goal in the period of "the 11th Five-Year National Plan" to predict demands of talents in the time of "the 11th Five-Year National Plan".The 11th Five-Year Plan' demand forecasting system" of Deyang City is based on software systems developed by ADO+VB, according to software engineering analysis, design, realization of the principle of sequence. During the development process, software engineering's necessity analysis, conceptual design, detailed design, database ER plans, and the software testing technology have all applied comprehensively. The 11th Five-Year Plan' demand forecasting system" of Deyang City applies VB ADO database development tools and technologies, and the operating system platform is Windows. Therefore, the development of technology is mature and reliable, with strong expansion. Relational Database Management System (RDMS) Access occupies fewer resources and high reliability. The system can be divided into interface, control, and entity in logic, meanwhile, all the business logic can be realized in control layer. There is no memory process, flip-flop in the database that can easily changed it into other relational databases, but a little base code changes."Talent Development Demand Forecast System of Deyang City" can supply technical support to monitor the development of talented people and to meet the economic and social development. At the same time, it provides technical support for the Deyang City's talent enrollment, training in the "11th Five-year Plan" period as well as reference for the formulation of macroeconomic policy of Deyang City. Moreover, Its predicting figures can be directly applied in the 11th Five-Year Plan talent development plan of Deyang City.