Current RMB Exchange Rate System Gains Or Losses Analysis And Future Reformation Way Of Thinkings Study

From 1994,our country practices compulsory system of buying and selling foreign exchange. This text analyzes with theories and substantial evidence to the recent years RMB exchange rate movement mechanism, getting a fixed exchange rate system that in fact its quality is pegged to the US$. With the influence this system, the article makes use of method of the multiple regression analysis to analyze the quickly increase of foreign exchange reserves at the condition of the change of various factor of balance of payments. The RMB bears the pressure of revaluation more and more bigly. For stabilizing the RMB exchange rate, People's Bank of China has to interfere the foreign exchange market by buying foreign exchange. Central Bank's independence of money policy has been more and more small. At the base of analyzing to the current exchange rate system of "pegged to the US$" having got its advantage and disadvantage, regarding " trilemma" as the theories foundation, put forward to following reformation way and suggestion, regarding the independence of money policy as the fulcrum, letting exchange rate contain certain flexibility and capital limited flow, namely "simple pendulum effect" ,at the condition of Chinese economy gradually reformation and opening , joining together other developing country experience, at toward the transition process of the floating exchange rate system, our country should hold tight the opportunity to withdraw the pegged exchange rate system, changing first to basket-peg system, then little by little enlarging fluctuating flexibility of the exchange rate , putting into practice to the really the managed floating exchange rate system, finally heading for the complete floating exchange rate system.