Analyses On Fluctuation Of Stock Price Index In Chinese Stock Market And Its Macroscopical Influence Factors

The stock market has been established for more than ten years in our country, and it has become an important part in Chinese economic situation. After more than ten years of development, it has got great achievements, even though the course is rather tortuous. While compared with the mature ones of abroad, the stock market in our country has its own problems, With those problems the government is hard to handle the marketing, and the investors do not know what course to take. Therefore, studying stock fluctuation of growing market and keeping informed on its fluctuating law has great theoretical and practical significance to the state supervisory sessions, the academic circle and the investors. This paper takes the method of statistic analysis to make a practical study on fluctuating law of the stock index, and gives an analysis of the factors and the effects which influence the fluctuating, then discloses the internal law of it. Through this the paper aims to provide a mode for the government to supervise the stock market, and to work out the corresponding plans and policies; it also means to lead the investors to reasonable investment. This paper is divided into parts: In the first part a literature review at home and abroad is presented and analyzed. The second part makes a brief introduction of the price index in common use, and decides the Shanghai composite index as the object of study. After a further analysis of the statistic index of daily returns and the monthly K-line of Shanghai composite index, the paper comes up with four basic features of the fluctuating index in our country, they are: the growing features, the periodical features, the policy features, and the gradually stabilizing features. The main causes of these features are presented in the end. In the third, the paper gives an analysis of the relations between macro-economic variations and fluctuating index. It starts the analysis from the view of basic theories, and then makes a empirical study mainly by adopting relativity analysis, integrated test, Granger causality test. The findings of the analysis are: From the view of a long period the stock price index is corresponding to the development of macro-economy in our country; While in some stages, they are deviating from each other. In this sense, the stock index is not able to work as the "barometer"of the macro-economy. The fourth part gives an analysis of the impact of our country's stock policy on the fluctuating index. This part also follows the way of theoretical analysis first and consequently the practical test: An analysis of the participants who are engaged in the stock market is presented first, and then the finding is derived, just like that the "policy market"is sure to exist as long as the government takes the tri-role position in the stocking market. However, the investors are becoming more and more rational and mature, thus the "policy effect"tends to be weaker. Next the paper presents several typical cases existing in the more than ten years'development of our country's stock market. Through the method of event study, the above findings are proved to be valid and operable. The fifth part presents the impact of the expansion of the demanding and supplying to the fluctuating index, and gives the analysis on the two layers: First the paper views on the positive and negative influences of expansion to the fluctuating index; Then based on the demanding and supplying law in the economics, an analysis is carried out from the impact produced by the rising rate of demanding and supplying to the fluctuating index in the stock market. The sixth part gives a conclusion of the above parts, and comes up with some strategies.