The Empirical Study On The Financial Affairs In Early Warning For The Listed Companies Of China

Along with our country Joining the WTO, our country businesses face the exterior environment of competition is more and more vigorous, the quantity of the businesses sink into the financial distress and cause bankruptcy hoicked, the wide- spread ability of resisting the risk is weaker. It is important for businesses to raise their anti- risk ability and can make business executive known the latent danger in business as early as possible and adopt to reply the measure. So the research of the financial affairs early warning becomes the focus of the theoretical research and practical research.As for financial affairs early-warning research of the listed company, the domestic and international scholar onces established many financial affairs early warning model, but these established modelses is all the premise that finance data is true. However, our country' s system of ST, PT ruled in the {( company law ? , will to lead to the obvious influence for listed company itself and the other benefits related. In this case, they will try their best to adopt all kinds of means of profit manipulation for realizing theirselves maximal effects, in order to avoid to appear loss or continuous loss. Moreover, non-loss companies is also possibble becauseof all kinds of the purpose to adopt all kinds means of earnings management. So, while establishing financial affairs early- warning model, we consider the influence of earnings management and profit manipulati on the listed company finance data, from the angle of empirical study, we establish financial affairs Early- warning model on the consideration non- loss companies' earnings management and loss companies ' profit manipulation at last. The main contents of the empirical study on the financial affairs in early warning includes: the define of the study object -> the design of the sample of financial affairs early-warnings the design of the estimate changesN the define of the early -warning method> to the adjustment of loss company of eight financial index signs -. the outstanding examination of index signs and the multi-collinearity examination n making use of the financial index signs which is after or before adjusting to establish A or B model. The paper uses a lot of knowledge of statistics and also complies with the rules of the empirical study form the contents above-mentioned. We verify that earnings management and profit manipulation have the important influence on establishing financial affairs early warning model through established model ; Through established model, we discovery that the native listed companies's financial distess is not the abilitis of having no paying , but the decrease of the abilities of the earnings between 2000year and 2001year. In the process of the adjustment of eight financial index signs, we courageously apply the theory of eanings management and profit manipulation to adjust the eight financial index signs, and The result discovers the adjustment is beneficial. At the same time, we not only make use of the outstanding examination, but also of the multi-collinearity in the sieving of the finance index sign, in order to make our established model cannot influence the estimate accuracy as more or less financial index signs , and Guarantee Nonexistent the multi-collinearity amony the financialindex signs.With the development of corpate governance and the capital market, the research of the financial affairs early warning for the listed Companies of China becomes more and more important because the research is useful to realize the aim of the value maximum of the companies.The theory is based on the practice and ,on the contrary, the theory can lead practice.With the perfection of corpate governance and the capital market, the accouting information of the listed company will become more and more perfect.So the research of the financial affair in early warning of the listed company should incessantly develop.So the paper only gets some conclusions according to the current conditions.We should still try our best to study the financial affairs in early warning .Just as the ancient poetry said : "study is endless, wu can arrive at the destination of our life only to study hard. " The author will study this financial affairs in early warning of the listed company in our country with the development of the means of profit manipulation in the future. The paper is the outcome of the three years' study of studing for the Master degree.