Study On The Trendency Of RMB Exchange Rate

About trend, especially appreciation pressure, etc. problem faced, RMB of exchange rate, it has been one of the focuses that the financial market pays close attention to both at home and abroad all the time. China's economy is dissolved into in the international economy day by day. In the face of the economic globalization, involve such international disputes as the economic and trade, financial exchange rate, etc., it is very difficult to refuse to discuss briefly with " state sovereignty ". China must face the international dispute of the exchange rate of RMB for one's own interests.On the basis of the thing that carry on research to the characteristic of the exchange rate system of RMB and our country's present situation, this text has analyzed the pros and cons of the exchange rate system of present RMB, and it is a kind of inevitable trend to prove the floating exchange rate system, but not suitable for our country temporarily. Having analyzed finally that pegs to the advantage of the exchange rate, but it is not feasible to peg to the package currency.This text theory suitability in China write one from foreign currency supply and demand model (international revenue and expenditure), have set up the foreign currency supply and demand model that trade project combines with item of the capital, foreign currency supply and demand model that the international revenue and expenditure and management float and combine together, foreign currency supply and demand model that the international revenue and expenditure combines with policy variable and considering the foreign currency supply and demand model of the exchange rate change factor of foreign exchange market, drawing the exchange rate of RMB shortly will keep the steady conclusion shortly. And build the model of setting up to analyze to the long-term tendency of the exchange rate of RMB, draw the corresponding conclusion.Improving the overall national strength of our country constantly, is improving constantly, the reform of state-run bank is a constant promotion ofrepresentatives' reform in banking system, the constant perfection of the financial market, the exchange rate mechanism of RMB carries on the condition of the market-based reform in the constant maturity. In term of actual conditions of our country, keep the exchange rate policy accord with China interests at present; the interval opportunity is still unripe to relax the exchange rate of RMB and float. In fact, keep the basic stability on the reasonable, balanced level of exchange rate of RMB, not only favorable to the steady development of the regional economy of Asia but also favorable to the steady development of the international economy.In the last chapter, this text attempt to should how think about and solve pressure problem that RMB face look for the answer at present. By the look of policy trend of the exchange control, should change the asymmetric exchange control system progressively, to flowing into and flowing out the policy inclination of adopting relative neutrality, relax and form and sell the management system gathered together by force, slow down the systematic enlarged appreciation pressure. Looking from system, it accords with the national conditions of our country and can be operated that the goal district makes. So, should catch the system of goal district that the opportunity realize the exchange rate of RMB progressively, the ones that complemented guaranteed with the related reform it is realized smoothly.