The Empirical Research On Hot Issue Market Of China's IPO

The problem of hot issue market is one of three major mysteries of initial public offerings research field, it is the western academia's concerned hot question in recent years too. At present, hot issue market survey concentrate on IPO, stock market of one country, issue income and the volume periodic investigation of circulation, and closely related to issue pricing of the new stock. Generally speaking, several months the initial high income follow often offerings quantity improve rapidly for the initial public offerings, and a lot of positive research indicates this kind of dependence is very high.But because Chinese stock market establish still short time so far , have to deficient a great deal of systems, so the domestic research of IPO hot issue market's phenomenon is still very rare at present, and have dispute to the phenomenon of hot issue market of Chinese stock market. Directing it against herein, this text is on the basis of reviewing the theory survey that the price behavior of IPO, comprehensive domestic and international research results, use the new stock to list initial return ratio , issue stocks such indexes as the quantity and IPO circulation ,etc, regard 1154 stocks of the initial public offerings during January of 1993 - August of 2004 as samples, adopt two kinds of real example methods separately: Namely a classification in the single month: the dependence lagging of 12 months is examined after the fault for inspection IPO quantity and initial earning ratio dependence ; With half -year classification: Have made single factor analysis of variance to examine the IPO circulation and initial return ratio. The result of study of the real example of the phenomenon of hot issue market to the Chinese stock market is found, initial return ratio, and IPO quantity and IPO of circulation unable to pass the relationship examine, and the real example result indicates the phenomenon of hot issue market of Chinese stock market is not remarkable.Explain looks contrast real example result and western theory that scholar provide, I am great from the stock index fluctuating range of the stock market of our country, excessive to speculate phenomenon to be serious in small scale resisting riskability one's own characteristic of fragility such as being weak make analysis, think of our stock market's hot issue phenomenon remarkable to can sum up in administrative intervention hinder market supply and demand from to issue automatic regulation of stock price publicly for initial market, the agent structure of investment causes such main reasons as the excessive existence that speculates, and typical seller's market ,etc. out-of-balance.Though there are the large data span had in domestic relevant hot issue market survey, but need to point out at the same time , if consider further equilibrium of supply and demand of the new stock and total economic situation will make the research approach more complete. Because of the special circumstances of the Chinese stock market, do not still possess the realistic meaning of this kind of research approach at present, so only in after in the article it make by kinds of discussion about modeling of method, expect to benefit the follow-up study of the hot issue market theories, make truer analysis to the phenomenon of hot issue market of our stock market.