The Empirical Study Of The Cash-dividend Changes Based On The Persistence Of Earnings Changes

The research theme of this dissertation is an empirical study of the cash-dividend changes based on the persistence of earnings changes. It focuses on the dividend policy of the Chinese listed companies after 2000. The Studies mainly carries on from two aspects:On the one hand, the dissertation analysis the information content of the cash-dividend changes. All Samples are divided into two groups by the sign of the cash-dividend changes. Then, all Samples are divided into four groups by the sign of the cash-dividend change and the sign of earnings changes. Our results from Samples on 2002 confirm that the changes of the earnings tend to persist or the state of the earnings can be maintained when an earnings change is companied with a cash-dividend change of the same sign. And the results also confirm that the change of the earnings is transient or more likely to reverse when an earnings change is companied with a cash-dividend change of the opposite sign. But on 2000 and 2001, we find that the cash-dividend changes don't have the same information content. It indicates that the Chinese listed companies start to realize the function of the dividend policy, and indicate that the supervision and management of the government have given initial success.On the other hand, we examine whether the market interprets changes in cash-dividends as a signal about the persistence of the earnings change. The empirical results don't give strong backing to the hypothesis which changes in cash-dividend cause investors to revise their expectations about the persistence of the earnings changes. But the changes in cash-dividend can play certain role on investors' anticipation about the future earnings.Thereafter, the dissertation integrates the foregoing study outcomes, analyzing the underlying relationship between manager and investor. We document that It is necessary to let dividend policy impress information of company's future, and that the market can learn by itself in the end. After analyzing the results, the dissertation brings forward advice to listed company's dividend policy and to the supervision and management of the government.