The Evolutive Rule Of Internal Output Structure Of The Tertiary Industry In Shanghai

At the early years in 1990s, the government of Shanghai brought forward an industrial development policy of "tertiary, secondary, primary". In 2000, the proportion of the increased value of the tertiary industry in Shanghai to GDP exceed 50% firstly, and in the latter half of the year of 2004, especially since this year, the tertiary industry have accumulated a new power to develop. The presentation of The Guideline of Speeding up Modern Service Industry in Shanghai has urged that a sound 'accelerating' situation is appearing in tertiary industry. But the increase in quantity can not represent the increase in quality, so recently more and more people pay attention to these questions, such as whether the output structure of internal industry is reasonable or not, and the development direction of industry proportion. Aiming at this situation, this article analyzes deeply the internal output structure of the tertiary industry in Shanghai.First, this article researches the evolvement rule of the internal output structure of the tertiary industry in Shanghai since 1978, and at the base of analyzing corresponding data, combine the factors of deep system, mechanism and policy in Shanghai, then find the characters by stages of the internal development of tertiary industry. There are 3 stages, which are analyzed by the development trend.Second, with the radar chart this article compares the internal output structure of the tertiary industry in Shanghai with other international metropolis. Then find that Shanghai is one of the cities which have the best internal structure and development situation in China, but comparing with other metropolis such as Tokyo we can see the gap. So aiming at improving the course towards internationalization this article provides some suggestions.Third, this article gives the demonstration research of the internal output structure of the tertiary industry in Shanghai. This paper builds a mathematical model and research the evolvement of output structure of traditional and modern service industry, the evolvement from 4 hierarchies, and the output proportion of each embranchment. Then this paper forecasts the proportion of each embranchment in 2010 and 2020 with the regressive model. This forecasting is meaningful for the future direction of the internal structure of the tertiary industry.Finally, this paper gives some suggestions for the justification and optimization of the internal structure of the tertiary industry.The method used in this paper includes: dynamic analysis, comparing analysis, combined method of qualitative and quantitative analysis, etc..