Application Of Capital Asset Pricing Model On Port Investment Risk Analysis

The port is the foundation industry of the national economy, is an important link that supports the whole social reproduction to operate normally. The port investment risk analysis has count for much meaning for the interior region economy development of the port and the big and medium-sized business enterprise of the interior region in the exaltation of the competition ability in the international economy.This text introduced an investment risk analysis basic theories and method first, according to port actual circumstance, analyzed the characteristics of port investment risk and its influence factors, lead the capital asset pricing model into to the port investment risk analysis. Based on the asset pricing theories build up be suitable for the port investment risk analysis model, carry on analysis to the port business enterprise of our country mainly appear on market, and examine the applicability of the asset pricing theory in the port investment risk analysis. Applying the capital asset pricing model, by analyzing the result educe each port stock coefficient and regression equation. Carries on a comparison and combining each port actual circumstance analyze its reason and the meaning of the actual investment. Applying Monte Carlo simulates CIMC in the future thirty years yield. We draw conclusions as follows:1)In the circumstance of a =0 gain to regression equation and the system risk(the beta coefficient) is different because of the free risk interest rate. In the circumstance of a≠0 regression equation, the system risk and judge coefficient is unique, have objectivity. By analysis we can know, currently the actual circumstance of the our country and the ideal circumstance(a =0) of the capital asset pricing model exist certain margin. For assurance of accurate forecast, while computing regression equation of the characteristic line, should suppose the a≠0.2) Investment risk lower the average level of the market companies have: Shanghai port container, Yingkou port, Yantian port A, China international marine containers (CIMC), is can also see by return on equity of the company, opposite higher. Investment risk higher the average level of the market companies have: Jinzhou port, Tianjin port, China merchants A, China shipping development(CSD), Shenzhen Chiwan Wharf A, Xiamen port, is can also see by the net asset rate of the company, opposite lower.3) By Monte Carlo simulating CIMC in the future thirty years average yield can see, various managements of the port can lower the investment risk.