Analysis On Monetary Policy's Validity Under Inflation Contrast To Deflation

From realistic result of monetary policy's practice, we can learn that there is always some deviation between the anticipated goal and the realistic operation effect of the monetary policy. Sometimes this deviation is relatively small, and then the validity of monetary policy is relatively high; sometimes the deviation is relatively obvious, this makes the validity of the monetary policy become relatively low. The validity of monetary policy validity which is regarded as the front subject in the monetary theory at present has become one of the important fields of the theoretical research of monetary policy. It also has already become a great realistic problem which restricted the monetary policy to be implemented effectively at present in our country. Therefore, the research of validity of monetary policy has not only important theory meanings, but also comparative realistic meaning.The dissertation is based on the study of domestic and overseas research of the monetary policy's validity. After collecting a large number of economic datum of U.S.A in 1980's, Japan in 1990's and our country in 1985-1994, 1997-2003, the dissertation engages an overall and systematic demonstration research and draws a conclusion that the effect of the monetary policy was used to deal with inflation is better than that of the monetary policy was used to deal with deflation. Take this as a foundation, the dissertation discusses why the difference exists from the monetary policy's intermediary goal, tools, transmission mechanisms, open economy condition and distribution of national income, and explains the reason of emergence of monetary policy's asymmetrical validity.The dissertation uses overseas advanced computation analyses methods including cointegration model, granger causality test and vectors autoregressive representation to establish the monetary policy's validity model which accord with our country's realistic economic environment. Simultaneously, the dissertation adopts test instruments including stability test, vestige regression and impulse impact vector to makedemonstration analyses on our country's monetary policy's validity in different time sequence stylebook moment. On the basis of this, the problem of our country's monetary policy's validity is discussed and some suggestions on monetary policy are put up.